Note

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Surrogate Severe Calculation: PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, and RegridDataPlane

model_applications/ short_range/ GenEnsProd_fcstHRRR_fcstOnly _SurrogateSevere.conf

Scientific Objective

Run PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, and RegridDataPlane tools to create surrogate severe probability forecasts (SSPFs) for a given date. SSPFs are a severe weather forecasting tool and is a technique used by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as well as others. SSPFs are based on updraft helicity (UH; \(\text{UH} = \int_{z_0}^{z_t} ( \omega * \zeta ) dz\)) since certain thresholds of UH have been shown as good proxies for severe weather. SSPFs can be thought of as the perfect model forecast. They are derived as follows:

  1. Regrid the maximum UH value over the 2-5km layer at each grid point to the NCEP 211 grid (dx = ~80km).

  2. Create a binary mask of points that meet a given threshold of UH.

  3. Convert the binary mask into a probability field by applying a Gaussian filter.

For more information, please reference Sobash et al. 2011 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05046.1).

Datasets

There are two dates that can be used as input data for this use case 20190518 or 20200205.

  • Input Data: HRRR data - There should 24 grib2 files. - Variable of interest: MXUPHL; the maximum updraft helicity - Level: Z2000-5000; from 2 - 5km - Format: grib2 - Projection: Lambert Conformal

  • Location: All of the input data required for this use case can be found in the met_test sample data tarball. Click here to the METplus releases page and download sample data for the appropriate release: https://github.com/dtcenter/METplus/releases

  • Data Source: Originally received from Burkely Gallo at the Storm Prediction Center.

METplus Components

This use case runs the PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, and RegridDataPlane MET tools.

METplus Workflow

This workflow loops over the data by process, meaning that each MET tool will run over all times before moving onto the tool. PCPCombine is called first, followed by GenEnsProd, and then, finally, RegridDataPlane.

METplus Configuration

METplus first loads all of the configurations found in parm/metplus_config. Then it loads any configuration files passed to METplus by the command line.

[config]

# Documentation for this use case can be found at
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/generated/model_applications/short_range/GenEnsProd_fcstHRRR_fcstOnly_SurrogateSevere.html

# For additional information, please see the METplus Users Guide.
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide

###
# Processes to run
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#process-list
###

PROCESS_LIST = PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, RegridDataPlane


###
# Time Info
# LOOP_BY options are INIT, VALID, RETRO, and REALTIME
# If set to INIT or RETRO:
#   INIT_TIME_FMT, INIT_BEG, INIT_END, and INIT_INCREMENT must also be set
# If set to VALID or REALTIME:
#   VALID_TIME_FMT, VALID_BEG, VALID_END, and VALID_INCREMENT must also be set
# LEAD_SEQ is the list of forecast leads to process
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#timing-control
###

LOOP_BY = INIT
INIT_TIME_FMT = %Y%m%d%H
INIT_BEG=2020020500
INIT_END=2020020500
INIT_INCREMENT=86400

LEAD_SEQ = 36


###
# File I/O
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#directory-and-filename-template-info
###

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_RUN = True
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_METHOD = DERIVE
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_STAT_LIST = MAX

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_DIR = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/short_range/surrogate_severe_calc
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {init?fmt=%Y%m%d}/hrrr_ncep_{init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}f{lead?fmt=%HHH}.grib2

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR = {OUTPUT_BASE}/short_range/surrogate_severe_calc
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = {init?fmt=%Y%m%d}/hrrr_ncep_{init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}f{lead?fmt=%HHH}.nc


GEN_ENS_PROD_INPUT_DIR = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR}
GEN_ENS_PROD_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE}

GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_DIR = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR}
GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = gen_ens_prod_{valid?fmt=%Y%m%d}_120000V_ens.nc

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_RUN = True

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_INPUT_DIR = {GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_DIR}
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE}

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_OUTPUT_DIR = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR}
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = surrogate_severe_{init?fmt=%Y%m%d}_{lead?fmt=%HHH}V_regrid.nc


###
# Field Info
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#field-info
###

MODEL = FCST_ens
OBTYPE = ANALYS

ENS_VAR1_NAME = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_NAME}
ENS_VAR1_LEVELS = "(*,*)"
ENS_VAR1_THRESH = >=14.2, >=19.0, >=26.0, >=38.0, >=61.0


FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR1_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge14.2
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR2_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge19.0
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR3_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge26.0
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR4_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge38.0
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR5_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge61.0

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR1_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR2_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR3_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR4_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR5_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR1_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_75
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR2_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_80
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR3_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_85
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR4_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_90
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR5_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_95


###
# PCPCombine Settings
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/wrappers.html#pcpcombine
###

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_ACCUMS = 1
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_NAMES = MXUPHL
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_LEVELS = Z2000-5000
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_NAME = MXUPHL_24
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_ACCUM = 24
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_DERIVE_LOOKBACK = 24
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_DATATYPE = GRIB


###
# GenEnsProd Settings
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/wrappers.html#genensprod
###

GEN_ENS_PROD_N_MEMBERS = 1
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENS_THRESH = 1.0

GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_TO_GRID = G211
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_METHOD = MAX
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_WIDTH = 27
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_VLD_THRESH = 0.0
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_CENSOR_THRESH = ==-9999
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_CENSOR_VAL = 0.0

GEN_ENS_PROD_CENSOR_THRESH = ==-9999
GEN_ENS_PROD_CENSOR_VAL = 0.0

GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_LATLON = TRUE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MEAN = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_STDEV = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MINUS = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_PLUS = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MIN = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MAX = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_RANGE = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_VLD_COUNT = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_FREQUENCY = TRUE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_NEP = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_NMEP = FALSE


###
# RegridDataPlane Settings
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/wrappers.html#regriddataplane
###

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_ONCE_PER_FIELD = False

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VERIF_GRID = G211

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_METHOD = MAXGAUSS

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_WIDTH = 1

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_GAUSSIAN_DX = 81.271
REGRID_DATA_PLANE_GAUSSIAN_RADIUS = 120

MET Configuration

METplus sets environment variables based on user settings in the METplus configuration file. See How METplus controls MET config file settings for more details.

YOU SHOULD NOT SET ANY OF THESE ENVIRONMENT VARIABLES YOURSELF! THEY WILL BE OVERWRITTEN BY METPLUS WHEN IT CALLS THE MET TOOLS!

If there is a setting in the MET configuration file that is currently not supported by METplus you’d like to control, please refer to: Overriding Unsupported MET config file settings

Note

See the GenEnsProd MET Configuration section of the User’s Guide for more information on the environment variables used in the file below:

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Gen-Ens-Prod configuration file.
//
// For additional information, please see the MET Users Guide.
//
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Output model name to be written
//
//model =
${METPLUS_MODEL}

//
// Output description to be written
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
//desc =
${METPLUS_DESC}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Verification grid
// May be set separately in each "field" entry
//
//regrid = {
${METPLUS_REGRID_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// May be set separately in each "field" entry
//
//censor_thresh =
${METPLUS_CENSOR_THRESH}

//censor_val    =
${METPLUS_CENSOR_VAL}

//normalize =
${METPLUS_NORMALIZE}

//cat_thresh    =
${METPLUS_CAT_THRESH}

//nc_var_str    =
${METPLUS_NC_VAR_STR}

//
// Ensemble fields to be processed
//
ens = {
   //file_type =
   ${METPLUS_ENS_FILE_TYPE}

   //ens_thresh =
   ${METPLUS_ENS_THRESH}

   //vld_thresh =
   ${METPLUS_VLD_THRESH}

   //field =
   ${METPLUS_ENS_FIELD}

}

//ens_member_ids =
${METPLUS_ENS_MEMBER_IDS}

//control_id =
${METPLUS_CONTROL_ID}


////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Neighborhood ensemble probabilities
//
//nbrhd_prob = {
${METPLUS_NBRHD_PROB_DICT}

//
// NMEP smoothing methods
//
//nmep_smooth = {
${METPLUS_NMEP_SMOOTH_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Climatology data
//
//climo_mean = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_MEAN_DICT}

//climo_stdev = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_STDEV_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Ensemble product output types
// May be set separately in each "ens.field" entry
//
//ensemble_flag = {
${METPLUS_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//version = "V10.1.0";

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

tmp_dir = "${MET_TMP_DIR}";

${METPLUS_MET_CONFIG_OVERRIDES}

Running METplus

The command to run this use case is:

run_metplus.py /path/to/METplus/parm/use_cases/model_applications/short_range/GenEnsProd_fcstHRRR_fcstOnly_SurrogateSevere.conf

Expected Output

# A successful run of this use case will output the following to the screen and logfile::
#
#    INFO: METplus has successfully finished runing.
#
# A successful run will have the following output files in the location defined by {OUTPUT_BASE}, which
# is located in the metplus_system.conf configuration file located in /path/to/METplus/parm/metplus_config.
# This list of files should be found for every time run through METplus. Using the output for 20190518 as an example.
#
# **PCPCombine output**:
#
# * 20190518/hrrr_ncep_2019051800f036.nc
#
# **GenEnsProd output**:
#
# * gen_ens_prod_20190519_120000V_ens.nc
#
# **RegridDataPlane output**:
#
# * surrogate_severe_20190518_036V_regrid.nc
#

Keywords

Note

  • PCPCombineUseCase

  • GenEnsProdUseCase

  • RegridDataPlaneUseCase

Navigate to the METplus Quick Search for Use Cases page to discover other similar use cases.

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