Note
Click here to download the full example code
5.2.3.5. Ensemble-Stat: Ensemble Statistics using Obs Uncertainty
model_applications/ convection_allowing_model/ EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc _Sfc_MultiField.conf
Scientific Objective
To provide useful statistical information about the ensemble characteristics such as how dispersive it is and the relationship between spread and skill. This example also shows how to compute simple probability fields called ensemble relative frequency.
Datasets
Relevant information about the datasets that would be beneficial include:
Forecast dataset: HRRRE data
Observation dataset: HRRRE data
METplus Components
This use case runs PB2NC on the prepBUFR observation data to convert it into NetCDF format so it can be read by MET. Then EnsembleStat is run.
METplus Workflow
The following tools are used for each run time:
PB2NC > EnsembleStat
This example loops by initialization time. For each initialization time it will process forecast leads 0, 1, and 2. There is only one initialization time in this example, so the following will be run:
Run times:
METplus Configuration
METplus first loads all of the configuration files found in parm/metplus_config, then it loads any configuration files passed to METplus via the command line with the -c option, i.e. -c parm/use_cases/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField.conf
[config]
## Configuration-related settings such as the process list, begin and end times, etc.
PROCESS_LIST = PB2NC, EnsembleStat
# time looping - options are INIT, VALID, RETRO, and REALTIME
# If set to INIT or RETRO:
# INIT_TIME_FMT, INIT_BEG, INIT_END, and INIT_INCREMENT must also be set
# If set to VALID or REALTIME:
# VALID_TIME_FMT, VALID_BEG, VALID_END, and VALID_INCREMENT must also be set
LOOP_BY = INIT
# Format of INIT_BEG and INT_END using % items
# %Y = 4 digit year, %m = 2 digit month, %d = 2 digit day, etc.
# see www.strftime.org for more information
# %Y%m%d%H expands to YYYYMMDDHH
INIT_TIME_FMT = %Y%m%d%H
# Start time for METplus run - must match INIT_TIME_FMT
INIT_BEG=2018070912
# End time for METplus run - must match INIT_TIME_FMT
INIT_END=2018070912
# Increment between METplus runs (in seconds if no units are specified)
# Must be >= 60 seconds
INIT_INCREMENT=3600
# List of forecast leads to process for each run time (init or valid)
# In hours if units are not specified
# If unset, defaults to 0 (don't loop through forecast leads)
LEAD_SEQ = 0,1,2
# Order of loops to process data - Options are times, processes
# Not relevant if only one item is in the PROCESS_LIST
# times = run all wrappers in the PROCESS_LIST for a single run time, then
# increment the run time and run all wrappers again until all times have
# been evaluated.
# processes = run the first wrapper in the PROCESS_LIST for all times
# specified, then repeat for the next item in the PROCESS_LIST until all
# wrappers have been run
LOOP_ORDER = times
# Name to identify model (forecast) data in output
MODEL = HRRRE_ens
OBTYPE = ANALYS
# The MET ensemble_stat logging level
# 0 quiet to 5 loud, Verbosity setting for MET output, 2 is default.
# This takes precendence over the general MET logging level set in metplus_logging.conf
#LOG_ENSEMBLE_STAT_VERBOSITY = 3
# MET Configuration files for pb2nc
PB2NC_CONFIG_FILE = {PARM_BASE}/met_config/PB2NCConfig_wrapped
PB2NC_LEVEL_RANGE_END = 255
PB2NC_QUALITY_MARK_THRESH = 3
# if True, pb2nc will skip processing a file if the output already exists
# used to speed up runs and reduce redundancy
PB2NC_SKIP_IF_OUTPUT_EXISTS = True
# These are appended with PB2NC to differentiate the GRID, POLY, and MESSAGE_TYPE for point_stat.
PB2NC_GRID =
PB2NC_POLY =
PB2NC_STATION_ID =
PB2NC_MESSAGE_TYPE = ADPUPA, ADPSFC, AIRCFT, PROFLR
# Leave empty to process all
PB2NC_OBS_BUFR_VAR_LIST = POB, QOB, TOB, ZOB, UOB, VOB, D_DPT, D_WDIR, D_WIND, D_RH, D_MIXR, D_PRMSL
# False for no time summary, True otherwise
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_FLAG = False
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_RAW_DATA = False
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_BEG = 000000
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_END = 235959
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_STEP = 300
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_WIDTH = 600
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_GRIB_CODES =
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_VAR_NAMES = TMP, WDIR, RH
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_TYPES =
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_VALID_FREQ = 0
PB2NC_TIME_SUMMARY_VALID_THRESH = 0.0
PB2NC_WINDOW_BEGIN = -900
PB2NC_WINDOW_END = 900
OBS_ENSEMBLE_STAT_WINDOW_BEGIN = -900
OBS_ENSEMBLE_STAT_WINDOW_END = 900
# number of expected members for ensemble. Should correspond with the
# number of items in the list for FCST_ENSEMBLE_STAT_INPUT_TEMPLATE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_N_MEMBERS = 2
# ens.ens_thresh value in the MET config file
# threshold for ratio of valid files to expected files to allow app to run
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENS_THRESH = 1.0
# Used in the MET config file for: regrid to_grid field
ENSEMBLE_STAT_REGRID_TO_GRID = FCST
ENSEMBLE_STAT_REGRID_METHOD = BILIN
ENSEMBLE_STAT_REGRID_WIDTH = 2
ENSEMBLE_STAT_DUPLICATE_FLAG = UNIQUE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_SKIP_CONST = True
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OBS_ERROR_FLAG = TRUE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_MASK_GRID =
ENSEMBLE_STAT_CI_ALPHA = 0.01
ENSEMBLE_STAT_MESSAGE_TYPE = ADPSFC
ENSEMBLE_STAT_INTERP_METHOD = BILIN
ENSEMBLE_STAT_INTERP_WIDTH = 2
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_ECNT = BOTH
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_RPS = NONE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_RHIST = BOTH
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_PHIST = BOTH
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_ORANK = BOTH
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_SSVAR = BOTH
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_RELP = BOTH
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_LATLON = TRUE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MEAN = TRUE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_STDEV = TRUE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MINUS = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_PLUS = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MIN = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MAX = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_RANGE = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_VLD_COUNT = TRUE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_FREQUENCY = TRUE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_NEP = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_NMEP = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_RANK = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_WEIGHT = FALSE
ENSEMBLE_STAT_CONFIG_FILE = {PARM_BASE}/met_config/EnsembleStatConfig_wrapped
# MET_OBS_ERR_TABLE is not required.
# If the variable is not defined, or the value is not set
# than the MET default is used.
ENSEMBLE_STAT_MET_OBS_ERR_TABLE = {CONFIG_DIR}/obs_error_table_V8.0.txt
# Variables and levels as specified in the field dictionary of the MET
# configuration file. Specify as FCST_VARn_NAME, FCST_VARn_LEVELS,
# (optional) FCST_VARn_OPTION
ENS_VAR1_NAME = TMP
ENS_VAR1_LEVELS = Z02
ENS_VAR1_THRESH = >=283, >=288, >=293, >=298, >=303
ENS_VAR2_NAME = DPT
ENS_VAR2_LEVELS = Z2
ENS_VAR2_THRESH = >=278, >=283, >=288, >=293, >=298
ENS_VAR3_NAME = UGRD
ENS_VAR3_LEVELS = Z10
ENS_VAR3_THRESH = <=-10, <=-5, <=-2, >=2, >=5, >=10
ENS_VAR4_NAME = VGRD
ENS_VAR4_LEVELS = Z10
ENS_VAR4_THRESH = <=-10, <=-5, <=-2, >=2, >=5, >=10
ENS_VAR5_NAME = WIND
ENS_VAR5_LEVELS = Z10
ENS_VAR5_THRESH = >=2, >=4, >=6, >=8, >=10
FCST_VAR1_NAME = TMP
FCST_VAR1_LEVELS = Z2
BOTH_VAR1_THRESH = >=283, >=288, >=293, >=298, >=303
OBS_VAR1_NAME = {FCST_VAR1_NAME}
OBS_VAR1_LEVELS = {FCST_VAR1_LEVELS}
OBS_VAR1_OPTIONS = ens_ssvar_bin_size = 1.0; ens_phist_bin_size = 0.05; wind_thresh = >2.572;
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_PREFIX = HRRRE_F{lead?fmt=%3H}_ADPSFC
[dir]
# Use case config directory
CONFIG_DIR={PARM_BASE}/use_cases/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField
# input and output directories for pb2nc
PB2NC_INPUT_DIR = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/hrrr_ensemble_sfc/prepbufr
PB2NC_OUTPUT_DIR = {OUTPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField/rap
# input directory for ensemble_stat
FCST_ENSEMBLE_STAT_INPUT_DIR = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/hrrr_ensemble_sfc/fcst
# point observation input dir for ensemble_stat (can also set grid obs)
OBS_ENSEMBLE_STAT_POINT_INPUT_DIR = {PB2NC_OUTPUT_DIR}
# output directory for ensemble_stat
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_DIR = {OUTPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField/EnsembleStat
[filename_templates]
# input and output templates for pb2nc
PB2NC_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {da_init?fmt=%Y%m%d}/{da_init?fmt=%Y%j%H%M}.rap.t{da_init?fmt=%2H}z.prepbufr.tm{offset?fmt=%2H}.{da_init?fmt=%Y%m%d}
PB2NC_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = {valid?fmt=%Y%m%d}/{valid?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}.rap.nc
# input ensemble template - comma separated list of ensemble members
FCST_ENSEMBLE_STAT_INPUT_TEMPLATE =
{init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}/postprd_mem0001/wrfprs_conus_mem0001_{lead?fmt=%HH}.grib2,
{init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}/postprd_mem0002/wrfprs_conus_mem0002_{lead?fmt=%HH}.grib2
# input template for EnsembleStat can also be defined using a single
# member with wildcard characters to find multiple files
#FCST_ENSEMBLE_STAT_INPUT_TEMPLATE =
# {init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}/postprd_mem000?/wrfprs_conus_mem000?_{lead?fmt=%HH}.grib2
OBS_ENSEMBLE_STAT_POINT_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {PB2NC_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE}
ENSEMBLE_STAT_VERIFICATION_MASK_TEMPLATE =
{INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/mask/EAST.nc,
{INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/mask/WEST.nc,
{INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/mask/CONUS.nc,
{INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/mask/LMV.nc
ENSEMBLE_STAT_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = {init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H%M}
MET Configuration
METplus sets environment variables based on user settings in the METplus configuration file. See How METplus controls MET config file settings for more details.
YOU SHOULD NOT SET ANY OF THESE ENVIRONMENT VARIABLES YOURSELF! THEY WILL BE OVERWRITTEN BY METPLUS WHEN IT CALLS THE MET TOOLS!
If there is a setting in the MET configuration file that is currently not supported by METplus you’d like to control, please refer to: Overriding Unsupported MET config file settings
Note
See the EnsembleStat MET Configuration section of the User’s Guide for more information on the environment variables used in the file below:
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Ensemble-Stat configuration file.
//
// For additional information, see the MET_BASE/config/README file.
//
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Output model name to be written
//
${METPLUS_MODEL}
//
// Output description to be written
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
${METPLUS_DESC}
//
// Output observation type to be written
//
${METPLUS_OBTYPE}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Verification grid
//
${METPLUS_REGRID_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// May be set separately in each "field" entry
//
${METPLUS_CENSOR_THRESH}
${METPLUS_CENSOR_VAL}
cat_thresh = [];
nc_var_str = "";
//
// Ensemble product fields to be processed
//
ens = {
${METPLUS_ENS_FILE_TYPE}
${METPLUS_ENS_THRESH}
${METPLUS_ENS_VLD_THRESH}
${METPLUS_ENS_OBS_THRESH}
${METPLUS_ENS_FIELD}
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Neighborhood ensemble probabilities
//
${METPLUS_NBRHD_PROB_DICT}
//
// NMEP smoothing methods
//
${METPLUS_NMEP_SMOOTH_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Forecast and observation fields to be verified
//
fcst = {
${METPLUS_FCST_FILE_TYPE}
${METPLUS_FCST_FIELD}
}
obs = {
${METPLUS_OBS_FILE_TYPE}
${METPLUS_OBS_FIELD}
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Point observation filtering options
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
${METPLUS_MESSAGE_TYPE}
sid_exc = [];
obs_thresh = [ NA ];
obs_quality = [];
${METPLUS_DUPLICATE_FLAG}
obs_summary = NONE;
obs_perc_value = 50;
${METPLUS_SKIP_CONST}
//
// Observation error options
// Set dist_type to NONE to use the observation error table instead
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
obs_error = {
${METPLUS_OBS_ERROR_FLAG}
dist_type = NONE;
dist_parm = [];
inst_bias_scale = 1.0;
inst_bias_offset = 0.0;
min = NA; // Valid range of data
max = NA;
}
//
// Mapping of message type group name to comma-separated list of values.
//
message_type_group_map = [
{ key = "SURFACE"; val = "ADPSFC,SFCSHP,MSONET"; },
{ key = "ANYAIR"; val = "AIRCAR,AIRCFT"; },
{ key = "ANYSFC"; val = "ADPSFC,SFCSHP,ADPUPA,PROFLR,MSONET"; },
{ key = "ONLYSF"; val = "ADPSFC,SFCSHP"; }
];
//
// Ensemble bin sizes
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
${METPLUS_ENS_SSVAR_BIN_SIZE}
${METPLUS_ENS_PHIST_BIN_SIZE}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Climatology data
//
//climo_mean = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_MEAN_DICT}
//climo_stdev = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_STDEV_DICT}
//
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
${METPLUS_CLIMO_CDF_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Point observation time window
//
${METPLUS_OBS_WINDOW_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Verification masking regions
//
mask = {
${METPLUS_MASK_GRID}
${METPLUS_MASK_POLY}
sid = [];
llpnt = [];
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Confidence interval settings
//
${METPLUS_CI_ALPHA}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Interpolation methods
//
${METPLUS_INTERP_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Statistical output types
//
${METPLUS_OUTPUT_FLAG_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Ensemble product output types
//
${METPLUS_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Random number generator
//
rng = {
type = "mt19937";
seed = "1";
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
grid_weight_flag = NONE;
${METPLUS_OUTPUT_PREFIX}
//version = "V9.0";
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
${METPLUS_MET_CONFIG_OVERRIDES}
Running METplus
This use case can be run two ways:
Passing in EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField.conf then a user-specific system configuration file:
run_metplus.py -c /path/to/METplus/parm/use_cases/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField.conf -c /path/to/user_system.conf
Modifying the configurations in parm/metplus_config, then passing in EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField.conf:
run_metplus.py -c /path/to/METplus/parm/use_cases/model_applications/convection_allowing_models/EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField.conf
The former method is recommended. Whether you add them to a user-specific configuration file or modify the metplus_config files, the following variables must be set correctly:
INPUT_BASE - Path to directory where sample data tarballs are unpacked (See Datasets section to obtain tarballs). This is not required to run METplus, but it is required to run the examples in parm/use_cases
OUTPUT_BASE - Path where METplus output will be written. This must be in a location where you have write permissions
MET_INSTALL_DIR - Path to location where MET is installed locally
Example User Configuration File:
[dir]
INPUT_BASE = /path/to/sample/input/data
OUTPUT_BASE = /path/to/output/dir
MET_INSTALL_DIR = /path/to/met-X.Y
NOTE: All of these items must be found under the [dir] section.
Expected Output
A successful run will output the following both to the screen and to the logfile:
INFO: METplus has successfully finished running.
Refer to the value set for OUTPUT_BASE to find where the output data was generated. Output for this use case will be found in model_applications/convection_allowing_models/EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField/EnsembleStat/201807091200 (relative to OUTPUT_BASE) and will contain the following files:
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V_ecnt.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V_ens.nc
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V_orank.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V_phist.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V_relp.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V_rhist.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V_ssvar.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F000_ADPSFC_20180709_120000V.stat
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V_ecnt.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V_ens.nc
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V_orank.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V_phist.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V_relp.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V_rhist.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V_ssvar.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F001_ADPSFC_20180709_130000V.stat
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V_ecnt.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V_ens.nc
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V_orank.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V_phist.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V_relp.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V_rhist.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V_ssvar.txt
ensemble_stat_HRRRE_F002_ADPSFC_20180709_140000V.stat
Keywords
Note
EnsembleStatToolUseCase, ConvectionAllowingModelsAppUseCase, PB2NCToolUseCase, prepBUFRFileUseCase, GRIB2FileUseCase, NCAROrgUseCase, EnsembleAppUseCase, ProbabilityGenerationUseCase, NOAAGSLOrgUseCase, DTCOrgUseCase, ObsUncertaintyUseCase, MaskingFeatureUseCase
sphinx_gallery_thumbnail_path = ‘_static/convection_allowing_models-EnsembleStat_fcstHRRRE_obsHRRRE_Sfc_MultiField.png’
Total running time of the script: ( 0 minutes 0.000 seconds)