Note
Click here to download the full example code
Grid-Stat: 6hr PQPF Probability Verification
model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE _obsStgIV_GRIB.conf
Scientific Objective
This use case demonstrates the evaluation of a probabilistic field. The HRRR-Time Lag Ensemble (TLE) used in this example was used to demonstrate prototype ensemble post-processing techniques. A time-lagged ensemble can provide higher temporal resolution and be used to compute several different accumulation amounts based on what data is available for each run time. 6 hour and 1 hour observation data is available at 6Z, so the 6 hour accumulation data is used. However, at 7Z only a 1 hour accumulation field is available, so it uses the 1 hour field, then steps back in time trying to build a 6 hour accumulation with earlier data. METplus is configured to only allow 1 hour or 6 hour accumulations in the input files, so a set of six 1 hour accumulation fields are combined to create a 6 hour accumulation field. The result is compared to the 6 hour forecast data.
Datasets
Relevant information about the datasets that would be beneficial include:
Forecast dataset: HRRR-TLE probabilistic forecasts in GRIB2
Observation dataset: Stage IV GRIB 1 and 6 hour precipitation accumulation
METplus Components
This use case first runs PCPCombine on the observation data to build a 6 hour precipitation accumulation from 1 hour files or a single 6 hour file. Then the observation data is regridded to the model grid using the RegridDataPlane. Finally, the observation files are compared to the forecast data using GridStat.
METplus Workflow
The following tools are used for each run time:
PCPCombine (observation) > RegridDataPlane (observation) > GridStat
This example loops by initialization time. For each initialization time it will process forecast leads 6 and 7. There is only one initialization time in this example, so the following will be run:
Run times:
METplus Configuration
METplus first loads all of the configuration files found in parm/metplus_config, then it loads any configuration files passed to METplus via the command line with the -c option, i.e. -c parm/use_cases/model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB.conf
[config]
PROCESS_LIST = PCPCombine, RegridDataPlane, GridStat
LOOP_BY = INIT
INIT_TIME_FMT = %Y%m%d%H
INIT_BEG=2016090412
INIT_END=2016090412
INIT_INCREMENT=60
LEAD_SEQ = 6, 7
LOOP_ORDER = times
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_RUN = True
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_METHOD = ADD
OBS_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_RUN = True
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_DIR = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/StageIV
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {valid?fmt=%Y%m%d}/ST4.{valid?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}.{level?fmt=%HH}h
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR = {OUTPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB/StageIV_grib/bucket
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = {valid?fmt=%Y%m%d}/ST4.{valid?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}_A{level?fmt=%HH}h
OBS_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_INPUT_DIR = {OBS_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR}
OBS_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_OUTPUT_DIR = {OUTPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB/StageIV_grib/regrid
OBS_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_TEMPLATE = {OBS_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE}
FCST_GRID_STAT_INPUT_DIR = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/PHPT
FCST_GRID_STAT_INPUT_TEMPLATE= {init?fmt=%Y%m%d}/{init?fmt=%Y%m%d}_i{init?fmt=%H}_f{lead?fmt=%HHH}_HRRRTLE_PHPT.grb2
OBS_GRID_STAT_INPUT_DIR = {OBS_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_OUTPUT_DIR}
OBS_GRID_STAT_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {OBS_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_TEMPLATE}
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_DIR = {OUTPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB/GridStat
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = {init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H%M}
GRID_STAT_VERIFICATION_MASK_TEMPLATE = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/mask/CONUS_HRRRTLE.nc, {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/mask/EAST_HRRRTLE.nc, {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/mask/WEST_HRRRTLE.nc
MODEL = PHPT
OBTYPE = STAGE4_GRIB
FCST_IS_PROB = true
FCST_PROB_IN_GRIB_PDS = True
BOTH_VAR1_NAME = APCP
BOTH_VAR1_LEVELS = A06
BOTH_VAR1_THRESH = gt12.7, gt25.4, gt50.8, gt76.2, gt152.4
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_DATATYPE = GRIB
OBS_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_ACCUMS = 6, 1
REGRID_DATA_PLANE_METHOD = BUDGET
REGRID_DATA_PLANE_WIDTH = 2
REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VERIF_GRID = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/precipitation/mask/CONUS_HRRRTLE.nc
GRID_STAT_CONFIG_FILE = {PARM_BASE}/met_config/GridStatConfig_wrapped
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_PREFIX = PROB_{MODEL}_{CURRENT_FCST_NAME}_vs_{OBTYPE}_{CURRENT_OBS_NAME}_{CURRENT_FCST_LEVEL}
GRID_STAT_MASK_GRID =
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_PCT = BOTH
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_PSTD = BOTH
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_PJC = BOTH
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_PRC = BOTH
GRID_STAT_OUTPUT_FLAG_ECLV = STAT
GRID_STAT_NC_PAIRS_FLAG_LATLON = FALSE
GRID_STAT_NC_PAIRS_FLAG_RAW = FALSE
GRID_STAT_NC_PAIRS_FLAG_DIFF = FALSE
GRID_STAT_NC_PAIRS_FLAG_CLIMO = FALSE
GRID_STAT_NC_PAIRS_FLAG_APPLY_MASK = FALSE
MET Configuration
METplus sets environment variables based on user settings in the METplus configuration file. See How METplus controls MET config file settings for more details.
YOU SHOULD NOT SET ANY OF THESE ENVIRONMENT VARIABLES YOURSELF! THEY WILL BE OVERWRITTEN BY METPLUS WHEN IT CALLS THE MET TOOLS!
If there is a setting in the MET configuration file that is currently not supported by METplus you’d like to control, please refer to: Overriding Unsupported MET config file settings
Note
See the GridStat MET Configuration section of the User’s Guide for more information on the environment variables used in the file below:
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Grid-Stat configuration file.
//
// For additional information, see the MET_BASE/config/README file.
//
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Output model name to be written
//
// model =
${METPLUS_MODEL}
//
// Output description to be written
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
// desc =
${METPLUS_DESC}
//
// Output observation type to be written
//
// obtype =
${METPLUS_OBTYPE}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Verification grid
//
// regrid = {
${METPLUS_REGRID_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//censor_thresh =
${METPLUS_CENSOR_THRESH}
//censor_val =
${METPLUS_CENSOR_VAL}
cat_thresh = [];
cnt_thresh = [ NA ];
cnt_logic = UNION;
wind_thresh = [ NA ];
wind_logic = UNION;
eclv_points = 0.05;
//nc_pairs_var_name =
${METPLUS_NC_PAIRS_VAR_NAME}
nc_pairs_var_suffix = "";
//hss_ec_value =
${METPLUS_HSS_EC_VALUE}
rank_corr_flag = FALSE;
//
// Forecast and observation fields to be verified
//
fcst = {
${METPLUS_FCST_FILE_TYPE}
${METPLUS_FCST_FIELD}
}
obs = {
${METPLUS_OBS_FILE_TYPE}
${METPLUS_OBS_FIELD}
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Climatology mean data
//
//climo_mean = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_MEAN_DICT}
//climo_stdev = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_STDEV_DICT}
//
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
//climo_cdf = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_CDF_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Verification masking regions
//
// mask = {
${METPLUS_MASK_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Confidence interval settings
//
ci_alpha = [ 0.05 ];
boot = {
interval = PCTILE;
rep_prop = 1.0;
n_rep = 0;
rng = "mt19937";
seed = "";
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Data smoothing methods
//
//interp = {
${METPLUS_INTERP_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Neighborhood methods
//
nbrhd = {
field = BOTH;
// shape =
${METPLUS_NBRHD_SHAPE}
// width =
${METPLUS_NBRHD_WIDTH}
// cov_thresh =
${METPLUS_NBRHD_COV_THRESH}
vld_thresh = 1.0;
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Fourier decomposition
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
//fourier = {
${METPLUS_FOURIER_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Gradient statistics
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
gradient = {
dx = [ 1 ];
dy = [ 1 ];
}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Distance Map statistics
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
//distance_map = {
${METPLUS_DISTANCE_MAP_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Statistical output types
//
//output_flag = {
${METPLUS_OUTPUT_FLAG_DICT}
//
// NetCDF matched pairs output file
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
// nc_pairs_flag = {
${METPLUS_NC_PAIRS_FLAG_DICT}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//grid_weight_flag =
${METPLUS_GRID_WEIGHT_FLAG}
tmp_dir = "${MET_TMP_DIR}";
// output_prefix =
${METPLUS_OUTPUT_PREFIX}
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
${METPLUS_MET_CONFIG_OVERRIDES}
Running METplus
This use case can be run two ways:
Passing in GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB.conf then a user-specific system configuration file:
run_metplus.py -c /path/to/METplus/parm/use_cases/model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB.conf -c /path/to/user_system.conf
Modifying the configurations in parm/metplus_config, then passing in GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB.conf:
run_metplus.py -c /path/to/METplus/parm/use_cases/model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB.conf
The former method is recommended. Whether you add them to a user-specific configuration file or modify the metplus_config files, the following variables must be set correctly:
INPUT_BASE - Path to directory where sample data tarballs are unpacked (See Datasets section to obtain tarballs). This is not required to run METplus, but it is required to run the examples in parm/use_cases
OUTPUT_BASE - Path where METplus output will be written. This must be in a location where you have write permissions
MET_INSTALL_DIR - Path to location where MET is installed locally
Example User Configuration File:
[dir]
INPUT_BASE = /path/to/sample/input/data
OUTPUT_BASE = /path/to/output/dir
MET_INSTALL_DIR = /path/to/met-X.Y
NOTE: All of these items must be found under the [dir] section.
Expected Output
A successful run will output the following both to the screen and to the logfile:
INFO: METplus has successfully finished running.
Refer to the value set for OUTPUT_BASE to find where the output data was generated. Output for this use case will be found in model_applications/precipitation/GridStat_fcstHRRR-TLE_obsStgIV_GRIB/grid_stat/201609041200 (relative to OUTPUT_BASE) and will contain the following files:
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_180000V_pct.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_180000V_pjc.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_180000V_prc.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_180000V_pstd.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_180000V.stat
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_190000V_pct.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_190000V_pjc.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_190000V_prc.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_060000L_20160904_190000V_pstd.txt
grid_stat_PROB_PHPT_APCP_vs_STAGE4_GRIB_APCP_A06_070000L_20160904_190000V.stat
Keywords
Note
GridStatToolUseCase
PrecipitationAppUseCase
PCPCombineToolUseCase
RegridDataPlaneToolUseCase
GRIBFileUseCase
GRIB2FileUseCase
NetCDFFileUseCase
NOAAWPCOrgUseCase
NOAAHMTOrgUseCase
NOAAHWTOrgUseCase
ConvectionAllowingModelsAppUseCase
ProbabilityVerificationUseCase
Navigate to the METplus Quick Search for Use Cases page to discover other similar use cases.
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