6. References


Alberson, S.D., 1998: Five-day Tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic Basin. Weather & Forecasting, 13, 1005-1015.


Bradley, A.A., S.S. Schwartz, and T. Hashino, 2008: Sampling Uncertainty and Confidence Intervals for the Brier Score and Brier Skill Score. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 992-1006.


Brill, K.F., and F. Mesinger, 2009: Applying a general analytic method for assessing bias sensitivity to bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores. Weather and Forecasting, 24, 17481754.


Brown, B.G., R. Bullock, J. Halley Gotway, D. Ahijevych, C. Davis, E. Gilleland, and L. Holland, 2007: Application of the MODE object-based verification tool for the evaluation of model precipitation fields. AMS 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and 18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 25-29 June, Park City, Utah, American Meteorological Society (Boston), Available at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124856.pdf.


Bullock, R., T. Fowler, and B. Brown, 2016: Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-532+STR, 66 pp.


Candille, G., and O. Talagrand, 2008: Impact of observational error on the validation of ensemble prediction systems. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 959971.


Casati, B., G. Ross, and D. Stephenson, 2004: A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 11, 141-154.


Davis, C.A., B.G. Brown, and R.G. Bullock, 2006a: Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts, Part I: Methodology and application to mesoscale rain areas. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 1772-1784.


Davis, C.A., B.G. Brown, and R.G. Bullock, 2006b: Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts, Part II: Application to convective rain systems. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 1785-1795.


Dawid, A.P., 1984: Statistical theory: The prequential approach. J. Roy. Stat. Soc, A147, 278-292.


Ebert, E.E., 2008: Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework. Meteorological Applications, 15, 51-64.


Eckel, F.A., M.S. Allen, M.C. Sittel, 2012: Estimation of Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 50-69. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00015.1


Efron, B. 2007: Correlation and large-scale significance testing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102(477), 93-103.


Gilleland, E., 2010: Confidence intervals for forecast verification. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-479+STR, 71pp.


Gneiting, T., A. Westveld, A. Raferty, and T. Goldman, 2004: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation. Technical Report no. 449, Department of Statistics, University of Washington. [Available online at http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/reports/]


Hamill, T.M., 2001: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 550-560.


Hogan, R., E. O?Connor, and A. Illingworth, 2009: Verification of cloud-fraction forecasts. Quart. Jour. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 1494-1511.


Jolliffe, I.T., and D.B. Stephenson, 2012: Forecast verification. A practitioner?s guide in atmospheric science. Wiley and Sons Ltd, 240 pp.


Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, and J.M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology and Persistence.?Weather & Forecasting,? Vol. 18 Issue 2, p. 80-92.


Mason, S.J., 2004: On Using ?Climatology? as a Reference Strategy in the Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 18911895.


Mittermaier, M., 2013: A strategy for verifying near-convection-resolving model forecasts at observing sites. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 185-204.


Mood, A.M., F.A. Graybill and D.C. Boes, 1974: Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, McGraw-Hill, 299-338.


Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1330-1338.


Roberts, N.M., and H.W. Lean, 2008: Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 78-97.


Saetra O., H. Hersbach, J-R Bidlot, D. Richardson, 2004: Effects of observation errors on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 14871501.


Santos C. and A. Ghelli, 2012: Observational probability method to assess ensemble precipitation forecasts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 209221.


Stephenson, D.B., 2000: Use of the ?Odds Ratio? for diagnosing forecast skill. Weather and Forecasting, 15, 221-232.


Stephenson, D.B., B. Casati, C.A.T. Ferro, and C.A. Wilson, 2008: The extreme dependency score: A non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events. Meteor. Appl. 15, 41-50.


Weniger, M., F. Kapp, and P. Friederichs, 2016: Spatial Verification Using Wavelet Transforms: A Review. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 120-136.


Wilks, D.S. 2010: Sampling distributions of the Brier score and Brier skill score under serial dependence. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 21092118. doi:10.1002/qj.709


Wilks, D., 2011: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Elsevier, San Diego.